Will A No Deal Brexit Break The Good Friday Agreement

Some congressional leaders have pointed to the cost of a no-deal Brexit for Northern Ireland. House of Representatives spokeswoman Nancy Pelosi sounded the alarm last April as she and several colleagues travelled to London, Dublin and Belfast to warn that Congress would not support an American United Kingdom. 30 The co-chairs of the House`s Friends of Ireland caucus, MPs Richard Neal and Peter King, made a similar bipartisan promise.31 The congressional debate took on more partisan nuance in the letter from Senator Tom Cotton and 43 Republican colleagues to Prime Minister Johnson, who defended a trade deal “regardless of the Situation of Brexit.” 32 On 17 October 2019, EU Heads of State and Government Boris Johnson agreed on a revised withdrawal agreement, which replaced the backstop with a new protocol. [71] [72] In essence, this project would de facto keep Northern Ireland in the EU customs union and in the internal goods market (including the introduction of EU VAT), while allowing Britain to deviate. In December 2019, Labour announced that it had received an HM Treasury Paper with the Freedom of Information Act 2000, which appears to show that the Prime Minister`s draft agreement would require certain types of two-way customs checks between Britain and Northern Ireland. [73] Sinn Féin Vice-President Michelle O`Neill said that a Brexit without a deal was “incompatible with the Good Friday Agreement” and that if it did occur, a poll on Irish unity was the only answer. Jess Sargeant is unconvinced by the government`s controversial Brexit moves – and warns that peace will be threatened if the government continues its path and calls the Good Friday agreement a “fundamental peace situation” for the region, the UK has warned to respect its agreements with the people of Northern Ireland and the European Union. The statement quoted today in the Guardian stresses that the UK is in serious danger of leaving the EU without a deal on 31 October, as is the current legal situation. “No Deal” would be a disaster for Northern Ireland`s society, which would threaten our stability, prosperity and well-being, and must be avoided. Beyond benevolent neglect, the Trump administration has actively applauded British extremists who want an unsealed exit from the European Union, regardless of the cost to Northern Ireland. When the committee held a Brexit hearing almost two years ago, my colleague at Brookings, Tom Wright, described the government`s approach as “a predatory policy to immediately exploit the diarrhoea and weaknesses created by the Brexit process for the UK.” 24 The administration has doubled this approach. US President Donald Trump has called Brexit a “great thing.” 25 He encouraged the United Kingdom to abandon divorce talks with the EU,26 as an “enemy,” 27 in favour of a trade deal with former US security adviser John Bolton, announcing during a visit to London in August that he and Trump were “outgoing before there were subscribers.” 28 Vice-President Mike Pence, who was held in Dublin in early September with Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar, replaced the peace process before calling on Ireland and the EU to negotiate “in good faith” with the British government and “achieve an agreement that respects the sovereignty of the United Kingdom.” 29 By admitting that it was prepared to violate international law “in a very specific and limited manner” in the absence of agreement on certain aspects of the protocol protocol, the Government increased its commitment to negotiations with the EU.

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